Washington is worried about a peace between Damascus and its estranged Arab neighbors — as well as Turkey — that is marginalizing the U.S. and its allies.
The circumstances surrounding the flare-up in Syria between the U.S. occupation forces and pro-Iranian militia groups remain murky. President Joe Biden claims that the U.S. is reacting, but there are signs that it is likely being proactive to create new facts on the ground.
The U.S. Central Command claims that following a drone attack on an American base near Hasakah on the afternoon of March 23, retaliatory air strikes were undertaken later that night, at Biden’s direction, against “facilities used by groups affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.”
This version has been disputed by the spokesman of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, however, who accused Washington of “creating artificial crises and lying.” The Iranian official alleged that “over the past two days, American helicopters have carried out several sorties with the aim of increasing instability in Syria, and transferred Daesh (Islamic State) terrorists in the territory of this country.”
He said Washington must be held accountable for such activities. The official warned that Tehran will give a prompt response to any U.S. attack, on whatever false pretext, against Iranian bases on Syrian soil, which are present at Damascus’ request to fight terrorism.
Is the U.S. deliberately ratcheting up tensions in Syria as the China-brokered, Saudi-Iranian rapprochement is radically changing the security scenario in the West Asian [Middle East] region in a positive direction?
Saudi-Syrian Talks
There is optimism that Syria stands to gain from the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. Already, the Saudi Foreign Ministry has revealed that talks are going on with Syria for resuming consular services between the two countries, which will pave the way for the resumption of diplomatic relations, making it possible to reinstate Syria’s membership of the Arab League.
Saudi Arabia has established an air bridge with Syria to send relief supplies for those affected by the devastating earthquake in February.
The backdrop is that the normalization of relations between Syria and its estranged Arab neighbors has accelerated. It must be particularly galling for Washington that these regional states used to be active participants in the U.S.-led regime change project to overthrow the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The Saudi-Iranian rapprochement badly isolates the U.S. and Israel.
From such a perspective, it stands to reason that the U.S. is once again stirring up the Syrian cauldron as Russian aircraft have been reported to be frequently flying over the U.S. military base At Tanf on the Syrian-Iraqi border where training camps for militant groups are known to exist.
U.S. Green Berets and their partner force, the Maghaweir al-Thowra, MaT, during a joint patrol mission near At-Tanf Garrison, Syria, April 29, 2020. (U.S. Army/ William Howard)
Israel too is a stakeholder in keeping Syria unstable and weak. In the Israeli narrative, Iran-backed militia groups have been increasing their capability in Syria in the last two years and the continued U.S. occupation of Syria is vital for balancing these groups. Israel is paranoid that a strong government in Damascus might start challenging its illegal occupation of the Golan Heights.
A key factor in this matrix is the nascent process of Russian mediation between Turkey and Syria. With an eye on the forthcoming presidential and parliamentary election in Turkey in May, President Recep Erdogan is keen to achieve some visible progress in improving ties with Syria.
Erdogan senses that Turkish public opinion strongly favours normalization with Syria. Polls in December showed that 59 percent of Turks would like an early repatriation of Syrian refugees who are a burden on the Turkish economy, which has an inflation rate of 90 percent.
Ending Turkish Occupation Key to Assad
Turkey is a straggler when other the West Asian countries are normalizing their relations with Damascus. But Assad is demanding the removal of Turkish occupation of Syrian territory first for resuming ties with Ankara.
Now, there are growing signs that Erdogan may be willing to bite the bullet. The consummate pragmatist in him estimates that he must act in sync with the public mood. Besides, the main opposition party CHP (Republican Party) has always maintained that an end to the Syrian conflict needs to be anchored on the principles of Syria’s unity and territorial integrity.
The influential Beirut newspaper Al-Akhbar has reported, citing sources close to Damascus, that Erdogan is weighing options that would meet Assad’s demand with a view to restoring relations. The daily reported that one possibility is that Turkey may propose a timetable for the withdrawal of its troops in Syria.
Significantly, Erdogan telephoned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday and the Kremlin readout mentioned that amongst “topics concerning Russian-Turkish partnership in various fields,” during the conversation, “the Syrian issue was touched upon, and the importance of continuing the normalization of Turkish-Syrian relations was underlined. In this regard the President of Türkiye highlighted the constructive mediatory role Russia has played in this process.”
Earlier, last week, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar held telephone talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu to discuss developments in Syria where he underscored that the “sole purpose” of its deployment in northern Syria is to secure its borders and fight terrorism.
It is entirely conceivable that Erdogan has sought Putin’s help and his intervention to reach a modus vivendi with Assad. Of course, this is a spectacular success story for Russian diplomacy — and for Putin personally — that the Kremlin is being called upon to broker the Turkish-Syrian normalization.
The China-brokered, Saudi-Iranian normalization hit Washington where it hurts. But if Putin now brokers peace between two other rival West Asian states, Biden will be exposed as hopelessly incompetent.
If Turkey ends its military presence in Syria, the spotlight will fall on the U.S.’ illegal occupation of one-third of Syrian territory and the massive smuggling of oil and other resources from Syria in American military convoys.
Furthermore, Syrian government forces are sure to return to the territories vacated by Turkish forces in the northern border regions, which would have consequences for the Pentagon-aligned, Kurdish groups operating there.
The continued U.S. occupation of Syria may become untenable. Russia, Turkey, Iran and Syria are on the same page in seeking the withdrawal of U.S. troops.
Thus, the U.S. needs an alibi to justify remaining in Syria to fight “terrorism” when dialogue and reconciliation is in ascendance in West Asian politics.
Washington’s intention could be to confront Iran on Syrian soil — something Israel has been espousing — by taking advantage of Russia’s distraction in Ukraine. The U.S. would also like to disturb improving Russian-Iranian ties.
The specter that is haunting Washington is that the stabilization of Syria following Assad’s normalization with the Arab countries and with Turkey will inexorably coalesce into a Syrian settlement that completely marginalizes the “collective West.”
In retrospect, the unannounced visit by General Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staffm, to northern Syria in early March falls into perspective. Milley told reporters traveling with him that the nearly eight-year-old U.S. deployment to Syria is still worth the risk.
The U.S. is vastly experienced in using extremist groups as geopolitical tools. The time may have come for the militants, including ex-Islamic State fighters, who were trained in the U.S.’s remote At-Tanf military base to return to the killing fields for “active duty.”
Tass reported that last Friday, the terrorist group known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham tried to break into the Aleppo region which has been under Syrian government control and relatively stable in recent years.
Syria never invited the US to enter Syria or get involved.