Category Archives: Hybrid WW3

Hybrid WW3

Trump’s Dollar Threat Against BRICS Shows The US Hasn’t Learned Anything

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President-elect Trump’s crude attempt to scare away de-dollarization is based on an illusion of Washington’s omnipotence.

Donald Trump still has it, that old magic: Long known for using social media to great – or devastating – effect, the former and incoming US president has mightily stirred the bubble again. This time the target of his ire is BRICS+ (at this point an informal but commonly used label), an association of, in essence, non-Western states that dare organize and cooperate without Washington’s permission and outside its control. 

In particular, Trump has threatened that any attempt to “move away from the Dollar” will lead to massive US punishment, specifically, “100% tariffs.” 

“There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade,” the president-elect thinks he knows, and any country daring to challenge “the mighty US Dollar” – in the original over-capitalized, thundering Trumpese – “should wave goodbye to America.” Those who don’t want to fall from the good graces of the US, Trump demands, must not only abstain from abandoning the dollar but make a special commitment to not even try.

Let’s not dwell on the obvious: To be honest, who would not want to wave the US goodbye, if only we could? And for something that has “no chance” of happening, the idea of replacing or abandoning the dollar is getting Trump pretty worked up. Why so prickly about what he says is a non-starter anyhow?

Part of the answer – but only part – is psychological. Especially during America’s ongoing decline, its late-imperial elites, whether Democratic or Republican, are bound to be hyper-sensitive about anything that looks like defiance. Because they are still cultivating a delusion that they are “indispensable” and that we, the other almost 8 billion people on this planet outside the US, must accept their “leadership.”

But that complex explains only so much. Because what is special about BRICS is not what it has been trying to do but how successful it is, posing a challenge in the real world of power and geopolitics. Emerging barely two decades ago, just this year BRICS has doubled in size, and further expansion is certain. While it is a complex and evolving organization, one of its prominent concerns has been the escalating American abuse of the dollar as a geopolitical weapon. Hence, BRICS has been a platform for initiatives and discussions under the catch-all label “de-dollarization.” Indeed, according to Bloomberg, members of BRICS have been “leading the global debate over dollar exposure.”

That is what has triggered Trump, and not for the first time. Months before he won his comeback election, Bloombergreported that he and his advisers were thinking about and issuing threats against de-dollarization. In principle, it is not surprising that they are concerned. What a French finance minister once called “the exorbitant privilege” of the global dollar domination that emerged out of World War II has allowed the US to be profligate with debt. The basis of this anomaly is that, currently, almost 60% of all central bank reserves in the world are held in dollars, and nearly 90% of all foreign-exchange transactions are conducted in the US currency.

As a result, Washington has also been able to avail itself of what The Economist recently labelled “an enormous lever of power” by surveilling and obstructing global financial flows as well as imposing outright almost-confiscation (euphemized as “freezing”), as has happened to almost 300 billion dollars of Russia’s national reserves. In short, the dollar-as-it-still-is allows the US to live beyond its means at the cost of other nations and to make their lives miserable by the financial equivalent of blackmail, strangulation and, quite simply, robbery.

What is special this time is Trump’s hyperbolic tone and his explicit and public singling out of BRICS.

He has leveled his threat at an association that brings together two global powers, Russia and China, as well as several regional heavyweights, such as Iran and Brazil. It already represents at least 45% of the world’s population, and, in terms of the global economy, BRICS is a rising force that has already overtaken the G7, the declining club of Western/Global North rich countries. According to geopolitical analyst Kishore Mahbubani, at the end of the Cold War, more than a third of a century ago, the combined GDP of the G7 was the equivalent of 66% of global GDP. While BRICS did not exist yet, its future members were far from even getting close to matching the G7. By now, however, the G7 share stands at 45% and that of BRICS+ at 24%. That is, as long as you stick to the crude metric of nominal GDP. Once you adjust, more realistically, for purchasing power, the BRICS+ economies – with 34% of global GDP – have already beaten the G7’s 29%. 

Trump’s tweet, in other words, looks as if he were spoiling for an economic fight against two great powers – one of which is in the process of defeating the West in Ukraine – and a grouping of states that represents almost half of humanity and is powerful already while growing dynamically. What does Trump’s threat actually mean in that context?

To state the obvious, the president-elect’s sally squarely stands in the bipartisan US tradition of breathtakingly arrogant over-reach. Between sovereign states, to threaten other countries for potentially not using your currency, including in trades amongst themselves, is absurd. To demand that they promise not to even try makes you look like Tony Soprano on ecstasy, a weird mix between a bully and a crank.

But then, don’t blame Trump personally. This is not merely about him being his uncouth self. It’s a whole political culture – for want of a better term – speaking. The extraordinarily boorish pestering comes from the one, “exceptional” state on Earth that has got used to the idea that it can interfere in anyone’s business all the time and wherever it pleases. Be it by “secondary sanctions,” that is economic warfare designed to interfere with commercial relationships the US is not even involved in. Or the judicial insanity weaponized against Australian citizen and journalist Julian Assange, who was persecuted outside the US as if he had to obey American laws, while explicitly not granted even the meager protections that those same laws offer, at least formally, to Americans.  

No surprise there, really. Trump may think he’s very different from the US establishment, but he appears steeped in its self-damaging and shortsighted routine hubris. Yet does his demand even make sense on its own, inappropriate terms? No, not at all, for three reasons.

First, Trump seems to underestimate the sophistication of current de-dollarization discussions centered on BRICS. They are not aiming at the introduction of a new currency akin to the dollar or euro. Indeed, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has been explicit about the fact that the euro can only serve as an example of how not to do things. Instead, Russia aims at a more intelligent approach by setting up an international payments system, clearinghouse-style, taking full advantage of cutting-edge digitalization. China, importantly, agrees that it is modern technology that will allow for a gradual recasting of payments around the globe. Whatever will emerge from these initiatives, it will simply be too complex and smart to be amenable to the ham-fisted repression that Trump is trying to threaten.

Secondly, Trump’s tweet is self-defeating because the “100% tariffs” he waves about like a caveman cudgel are simply not believable as a threat – except, that is, the president-elect is prepared to inflict massive pain on the American economy and its consumers. Even his other tariff threats, against China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU, especially in conjunction with his unrealistic promises of tax cuts, imply rising prices and inflation in the US. And inflation played an important role in the defeat of the Democrats.

Finally, Trump’s approach is also self-defeating because it offers further incentives to de-dollarize, as even some Western experts acknowledge. The president-elect has illustrated exactly the kind of brutal and dumb overreach and, to put it simply, flagrant disrespect of other countries’ financial sovereignty that has antagonized the world in the first place. This kind of backfiring is precisely what the Russian presidency’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov has just warned the US about.

But perhaps, to be fair to Trump, there is another way to understand his threats against reducing dollar dependency: namely as a perversely misguided attempt to repair the enormous damage done by US economic warfare under previous administrations, including those of his two Democratic predecessors, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and his own as well.

Most of that damage was done in Washington’s gargantuan yet failing campaign against Russia. Before exiting the White House in 2017, Obama had already increased sanctions against Russia “substantially.” Subsequently, there was a relative lull during the first Trump administration. Where Obama had added 458 sanction targets, Trump still added more – 273 – but at a “much lower rate”: In the US, moderation is doing the same bad thing but more slowly. Congress, meanwhile, made sure that the president would have found it hard to reduce sanctions, even if he had wanted to, by passing the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). 

During Biden’s rule after 2021, then, US sanctions against Russia went from bad to worse: After the 2022 escalation, Biden boasted that his sanctions were “the toughest ever imposed on a major economy.” And, as before, the US was leading an international assault, including the EU and other American clients, such as Canada and Japan. By February of 2024, together they had ramped up the total of sanctions launched with the explicit intent to destroy Russia economically to 16,500.

This historically unprecedented economic warfare attack has not only failed but backfired, as is well known. Western speculators, especially in the US, have enriched themselves (again) through a number of perverse side effects – or were they main effects maybe? – as a recent Jacobin article shows. The inflation backlash triggered may well have contributed to the Democrats smashing defeat in the presidential elections, as noted before. The poor of the world have certainly suffered. And so have major economies as well, especially in a EU-NATO Europe, whose elites have consistently sacrificed the interests and well-being of their own countries, as Russian president Putin has repeatedly and correctly pointed out.  So bad has the fall-out been that even the British Telegraph, as NATO-bellicist as can be, has long noticed.

Trump, facing this total fiasco, you could say, is now desperately attempting to contain one aspect of its continuing fall-out, namely the drive toward de-dollarization. But the tragedy – or irony – is that he is trying to do so by applying even more of the same stupid highhandedness that got us into this mess in the first place. Instead of doing what is obviously needed – drop sanctions and economic warfare in general, including via weaponizing the dollar – he is adding more crude threats. 

Ultimately, it seems, Trump not only has but obstinately cultivates the same mental blind spot as virtually everyone else in the current US elite: He implicitly believes that American power has no limits, and certainly none set by the power of other states. Trump does believe that Washington can make mistakes, because otherwise he could not claim to correct them and “make America great again.” But he cannot grasp that repairing America’s place in the world would take genuine cooperation with others outside the US. Instead, he is betting on yet more bullying. Good luck with that.

Tarik Cyril Amar is a historian and expert on international politics. He has a BA in Modern History from Oxford University, an MSc in International History from the LSE, and a PhD in History from Princeton University. He has held scholarships at the Holocaust Memorial Museum and the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute and directed the Center for Urban History in Lviv, Ukraine. Originally from Germany, he has lived in the UK, Ukraine, Poland, the USA, and Turkey.

Hybrid WW3

Trump Threatens BRICS with Massive Tariffs

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The US president-elect has told BRICS to uphold dollar dominance, promising a 100% tariff if they refuse.

US President-elect Donald Trump has fired a warning shot at the BRICS group of nations, which have been outspoken on confronting the dominance of the dollar in global trade. If the idea gains traction, Trump has promised to impose “100% tariffs,” cutting them off from the “wonderful US economy.” Which country will feel the heat the most? RT explores the economic ties and dependencies to uncover which nations are in the line of fire.

The threat

“We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty US Dollar, or they will face 100% Tariffs and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful US Economy,” Trump said in a post on Saturday on Truth Social. 

“They can go find another ‘sucker.’ There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the US Dollar in International Trade, and any country that tries should wave goodbye to America,” he added.

The warning came just days after Trump, whose inauguration is set to take place on January 20, 2025, vowed to slap tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China upon taking office. China has already been the target of his rhetoric. Trump previously threatened to impose from 60% to 100% tariffs on imports from the country – however, this burden would have to be carried by American companies and consumers that buy from China, as they would have to pay the new costs.

China was an original member of the BRICS bloc, which also initially included Brazil, Russia, India, and later South Africa, but has since expanded to include Egypt, UAE, Ethiopia, and Iran. Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia have submitted applications to join BRICS, and several other nations have also expressed interest in joining.

Some members are eager to reduce their reliance on the US dollar, which has dominated global finance as the world’s reserve currency since after World War II, powering over 80% of international trade.

In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin advocated countering the US ability to wield the dollar as a political weapon. He appeared on the stage of this year’s BRICS Summit holding what looked like a prototype of the bloc’s own banknote. However, he stressed that BRICS’ goal is not to abandon the dollar-dominated SWIFT system completely, but rather to build an alternative.

“We are not refusing, not fighting the dollar, but if they don’t let us work with it, what can we do? We then have to look for other alternatives, which is happening,” Putin said.

In 2023, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva openly questioned why global trade should revolve around the dollar. At the same time, a top Russian official hinted that BRICS nations were actively exploring the creation of their own currency – potentially rewriting the rules of international commerce.

Trump, fresh off an electoral victory fueled in part by his pledge to impose strict tariffs on foreign imports, doubled down on his tough stance by threatening the entire BRICS bloc with 100% tariffs if they proceed with their currency plans. Who’s taking the biggest risk?

The risks for BRICS

Iran

  • Exports to the US: Minimal, due to existing sanctions.
  • The US as export destination: Not a significant partner.
  • Risk assessment: Low. Existing sanctions have already curtailed trade, so additional tariffs would have a negligible impact.

Ethiopia

  • Exports to the US: Limited, primarily agricultural products.
  • The US as export destination: Not one of the top five partners.
  • Risk assessment: Low. The US is a market for Ethiopian goods, but the overall trade volume is modest, reducing the potential impact.

Russia

  • Exports to the US: Focused on mineral fuels and precious metals.
  • The US as export destination: Not one of the top five partners.
  • Risk assessment: Low to moderate. Although the US is a significant market, Russia has a diversified export portfolio and the current geopolitical landscape doesn’t allow Moscow to engage in trade with the US as much as it used to before the flare-up in Ukraine in 2022, which may soften additional tariff impacts.

Egypt

  • Exports to the US: Mainly textiles and agricultural products.
  • The US as export destination: Not one of the top five partners.
  • Risk assessment: Moderate. The US is a key market for Egyptian textiles, so tariffs could negatively affect this sector.

South Africa

  • Exports to the US: Vehicles and minerals are top exports.
  • The US as export destination: Not one of the top five partners.
  • Risk assessment: Moderate to High. The automotive sector, a major part of South Africa’s economy, could face significant challenges due to tariffs.

United Arab Emirates

  • Exports to the US: Mainly petroleum products, aluminum and precious metals.
  • The US as export destination: Not one of the top five partners.
  • Risk assessment: Moderate to High. Key export sectors like aluminum could take a big blow, disrupting the UAE’s trade balance.

India

  • Exports to the US: Exports include pharmaceuticals, textiles, and machinery.
  • The US as export destination: Top export partner.
  • Risk assessment: High. The US is a major market for Indian goods. Tariffs could disrupt multiple industries, especially IT services and textiles.

Brazil

  • Exports to the US: Crude petroleum and aircraft are leading exports.
  • The US as export destination: Second-largest export partner.
  • Risk assessment: High. The country has a significant reliance on the US market, especially for high-value goods like aircraft. This makes Brazil highly vulnerable to tariffs.

China

  • Exports to the US: Exports encompass electronics, machinery, and textiles.
  • The US as export destination: Largest export partner.
  • Risk assessment: Very High. As the largest exporter to the US, China would face substantial economic repercussions from a 100% tariff, affecting numerous sectors. Outside the BRICS context, Trump has already threatened China with tariffs, so Beijing may already be considering its options, with or without a dollar alternative.

While BRICS nations are mulling challenging US economic dominance, they should tread carefully, since the US holds a formidable trade position, especially under the assertive policies of President-elect Trump. The US remains a top export destination for key BRICS members – China, India and Brazil. Those countries rely heavily on US markets. America’s strong economic leverage, combined with Trump’s history of aggressive trade tactics, positions Washington to exert significant pressure on individual members of the group.

The risks for the US

If imposed, Trump’s tariffs would not only affect certain BRICS economies, but also the US itself. Here’s how it could play out:

Higher costs for US consumers

  • China: As the largest exporter to the US, a 100% tariff on Chinese goods (electronics, machinery, textiles) would lead to serious price hikes.
  • Impact: Higher costs for essential consumer goods would contribute to inflation. The cost of living for Americans would rise, which would disproportionately affect low- and middle-income households.

Supply chain disruptions

  • India and Brazil: India is a key supplier of pharmaceuticals, and Brazil exports crude oil, agricultural products, and aircraft components.
  • Impact: 100% tariffs would lead to shortages or increased costs in critical industries like healthcare and aviation. US manufacturers might find it quite tough to replace these imports quickly.

Retaliatory tariffs

  • BRICS+ nations are likely to respond with retaliatory tariffs on US exports, including agricultural products, machinery, and technology.
  • Impact: US farmers and manufacturers would have to face a decrease in access to key international markets. This would reduce their competitiveness and lead to potential job losses in these sectors.

Geopolitical consequences

  • Economic Isolation: By targeting BRICS+, the US risks accelerating their efforts to de-dollarize the global economy, which would in time reduce the dollar’s power.
  • Impact: This could erode the US position in global finance, diminishing its ability to use economic weight to influence geopolitics.

Stock market volatility

  • The combination of inflation, supply chain disruptions, and declining international trade would likely send financial markets into chaos.
  • Impact: Investors may pull back, leading to volatility in stock prices and potentially dampening business investment.

The US industries which would feel the heat the most are the following:

Electronics and technology

  • Main source: China
  • Impact: China accounts for a significant share of electronics imports (such as smartphones, computers, and semiconductors), and a 100% tariff would dramatically increase costs. Domestic technology companies would struggle to source affordable components, leading to higher consumer prices and slowed innovation.

Pharmaceuticals

  • Main source: India
  • Impact: India is a major supplier of generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients to the US. Tariffs would raise healthcare costs, potentially creating shortages and increasing reliance on expensive alternatives.

Automotive

  • Main source: South Africa and Brazil
  • Impact: South Africa exports vehicles and parts, while Brazil supplies steel and aluminum. Tariffs would disrupt supply chains, raising manufacturing costs for cars and trucks and pushing prices higher for consumers.

Aerospace

  • Main source: Brazil
  • Impact: Brazil’s aircraft industry, particularly Embraer, provides parts and planes to US companies. Tariffs would disrupt this collaboration, increasing costs for airlines and aerospace manufacturers.

Agriculture and food

  • Main source: BRICS countries
  • Impact: Imports like coffee (Brazil), tea (India), fruits, and seafood from BRICS countries would face sharp price increases, making these staples more expensive for US consumers and disrupting food supply chains.

Even though imposing 100% tariffs might align with Trump’s ‘America First’ policy and may even give a short-term boost to the domestic industries, the long-term risks outweigh the benefits significantly. Prices for consumers would be higher, supply chains would be disrupted, and BRICS could retaliate – all of which could hamper US economic growth, increase inflation, and weaken the dollar’s dominance.

The prospects

Could BRICS counter the tariffs?

Yes, and there are several strategies they might use. Firstly, they could strengthen trade ties within the bloc, reducing reliance on US markets. Additionally, they could explore deeper trade relationships with non-aligned nations. The use of local currencies in trade could further push BRICS to pursue the creation of a payment system outside of the dollar. Countries that rely the most on US imports could try to subsidize the affected industries to maintain their competitiveness while they transition to alternative markets. On top of that, BRICS members could increase their global economic weight by framing the US tariffs as poisonous to global trade stability.

Is de-dollarization actually possible?

The idea of reducing reliance on the dollar in international trade and finance is gaining momentum. However, even if the BRICS countries try to move forward with that strategy, it is not going to be easy, as US dollar dominance is deeply rooted in trust, liquidity, and the widespread use of dollar-denominated assets. Its replacement, or even the reduction of its use in world trade, requires not just new technical infrastructure, but also widespread agreement to adopt it by global trading partners. Recent developments – increased trade in local currencies and BRICS currency discussions – reflect serious intent, but the road ahead will likely be a slow one. For now, the group can prioritize small steps, such as creating and implementing independent digital payment platforms.

A mathematical model published in 2023 in ‘Applied Network Science’ predicts that BRICS has strong potential to establish dominance in international trade through a unified currency. According to this study, based purely on trade flows and excluding political factors, about 58% of countries would already prefer a BRICS-backed currency over the US dollar (19%) or euro (23%).

Could Trump actually introduce tariffs?

It seems moderately possible. Protectionist policies align with his campaign promises, and his previous term showed that he was willing to use tariffs to achieve his political and economic goals – for example, a trade war with China. However, the potential price hikes may lead to public backlash, which could deter the move. US allies in Europe and other regions may also oppose the tariffs if they destabilize global trade and economic relations. Notably, Trump has previously used threats as a geopolitical tool without actually following through on them. He could be employing a similar tactic again.

Abbas Duncan, RT editor

Hybrid WW3, Military Industrial Complex

Israel’s Air Defense and the Weakness of the U.S. Navy

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These lines were written on CNN, the voice of the Democratic Party close to the US neocons, at a time when US President Biden announced that he had not yet received a guarantee that Israel would not target nuclear facilities in a possible counter-attack on Iran. This is clearly an expression of the US being held hostage by Netanyahu.

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Hybrid WW3, Nazism & Zionism

Shattered Myth of Invincibility

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Recent satellite imagery reveals that Iran’s massive ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1st successfully overwhelmed Israeli air defenses, despite causing limited damage due to the intentional non-use of non-nuclear warheads, and despite of the assistance provided by a US aircraft nearby.

Continue reading Shattered Myth of Invincibility →
Hybrid WW3, Nazism & Zionism

Iran Launches Missile Attack on Israel Amid Escalating Regional Tensions

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In a significant escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts, Iran has launched a barrage of ballistic missiles towards Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on Tuesday evening that “missiles were launched from Iran towards the State of Israel,” instructing civilians to seek shelter upon hearing alert sirens.

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Hybrid WW3

Global Nuclear Tensions Upgraded

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In an era marked by increasing geopolitical tensions, recent developments in nuclear doctrine and military capabilities among world powers have raised concerns about global stability.

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Geopolitics, Hybrid WW3

Indonesia-Russia Relations: A Comprehensive Analysis

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As we stand on the cusp of a new era in international relations, the partnership between Indonesia and Russia emerges as a pivotal alliance that could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.

Continue reading Indonesia-Russia Relations: A Comprehensive Analysis →
Hybrid WW3, Nazism & Zionism

Israel-Lebanon Conflict: Escalating Tensions and Humanitarian Concerns

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As of September 24, 2024, the situation along the Israel-Lebanon border has taken a drastic turn, with reports of massive Israeli airstrikes targeting southern and eastern Lebanon.

This escalation marks a significant development in the ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, raising concerns about the potential for a wider regional conflict.

Massive Israeli Airstrikes

According to the Lebanese Health Ministry’s Emergency Operations Center, a wave of Israeli airstrikes on September 23 resulted in at least 182 fatalities and 727 injuries, including civilians, women, and children. The attacks targeted various areas in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa region, with hundreds of strikes reported within hours.

Key Points:

  • Over 180 people killed in Israeli airstrikes
  • Hundreds of strikes targeting southern and eastern Lebanon
  • Civilian homes destroyed in multiple villages
  • Bekaa region also targeted in the attacks

The National News Agency (NNA) of Lebanon reported that several civilian homes were destroyed in villages such as Sohmor in the Bekaa and various areas in the south. The Israeli military intensified its raids on all areas, including valleys and outskirts of towns in the western sector of south Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s Response

In response to the Israeli attacks, Hezbollah’s military media announced that its fighters targeted several Israeli military installations, including:

  • The reserve headquarters of the Northern Corps
  • The reserve base of the Galilee Division and its logistical warehouses in the Amiad base
  • Military industries complexes of the Rafael Company in the Zevulun area north of Haifa

These targets were reportedly struck with dozens of rockets, marking a significant escalation in Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities.

Israeli Warnings and Strategy

The Israeli army sent text messages to Lebanese citizens in south Lebanon and the Bekaa, warning them to “stay away” from Hezbollah sites. This communication preceded the intense airstrikes across the region.

An Israeli security source told Yedioth Ahronoth that the Air Force planned to launch “wide and powerful attacks across Lebanon during the early afternoon hours.”

Recent Escalations

The current situation follows a series of events that have heightened tensions in the region:

  1. On September 22, Hezbollah struck deep within Israel, targeting the Ramat David airbase and a Rafael military industry site in the Haifa area.
  2. On September 20, Israel assassinated two top Hezbollah commanders and several fighters in a strike on Beirut, which also resulted in civilian casualties.
  3. Earlier, Israel had carried out a terror attack in Lebanon, detonating thousands of communication devices distributed to Hezbollah members, resulting in numerous casualties and injuries.

Potential for Further Escalation

The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation on both sides. The international community watches closely as these events unfold, concerned about the humanitarian impact and the risk of a broader regional conflict.

Humanitarian Concerns

The escalating conflict has raised significant humanitarian concerns:

  • High civilian casualty rates
  • Destruction of homes and infrastructure
  • Potential displacement of populations in affected areas
  • Risk of a wider humanitarian crisis if the conflict continues to escalate

International Response

As of the time of writing, the international community’s response to this latest escalation is still developing. It is expected that various nations and international organizations will call for de-escalation and a return to diplomatic channels to resolve the ongoing tensions.

Conclusion

The situation between Israel and Lebanon remains highly volatile and dangerous. As both sides continue to engage in military actions, the risk of a larger conflict looms, especially when the political survival of Bibi Netanyahu necessitates the continuance of hostilities in the region.

The coming days will be crucial in determining whether diplomatic efforts can succeed in de-escalating the situation or if the region will face a more protracted and potentially devastating conflict.

Covert Geopolitics is an independent online platform for in-depth analysis of international affairs, geopolitics, and emerging global trends. We strive to provide accurate, timely, and insightful coverage of major world events and their implications. We are committed to journalistic integrity, factual reporting, and fostering informed discourse on complex global issues. © 2024 Covert Geopolitics. All rights reserved.

Geopolitics, Hybrid WW3, Nazism & Zionism

Lebanon Pager Attack: A Montrous Act of Terrorism by MOSSAD

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In a shocking turn of events, Lebanon has been rocked by what many are calling a “monstrous act of terrorism.” On a fateful Tuesday, thousands of pagers simultaneously detonated across the country, leaving a trail of destruction, death, and injury in their wake.

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Geopolitics, Hybrid WW3

Russia-Mongolia Relations and Global Nuclear Dynamics: A Comprehensive Analysis

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In an ever-evolving geopolitical landscape, the relationship between Russia and Mongolia has taken center stage, highlighting the intricate dance of diplomacy, strategic partnerships, and global power dynamics.

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Banking & Finance, Geopolitics, Hybrid WW3

The Global Gambit: Unraveling the Complexities of Russian Asset Confiscation

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In a bold move that has sent ripples through the global financial community, the United States House of Representatives has passed legislation that could pave the way for the confiscation of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets.

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Hybrid WW3, Middle East, Nazism & Zionism

Escalation in Middle East: Netanyahu’s High-Stakes Gamble Risks Regional Escalation

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The recent assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has sent shockwaves through the Middle East, potentially derailing ceasefire negotiations and risking a wider regional conflict.

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Hybrid WW3, Ukrainian Crisis

The Ukraine Conflict: A Looming Threat to European Stability

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The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has evolved from a regional dispute into a potential powder keg that threatens to engulf Europe in a broader conflict. This article examines the complex dynamics at play, exploring the contrasting interests of the United States and Europe, and the dire consequences that could unfold if the situation continues to escalate.

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Hybrid WW3, Nazism & Zionism

NATO Scrambled 240 Fighter Jets to Shield Israel vs Iran’s Operation True Promise

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A senior Iranian military commander has revealed new aspects of the Islamic Republic’s retaliatory strikes on the Israeli-occupied territories last month, saying 240 fighter jets belonging to the US-led military alliance of NATO rushed to protect the Zionist regime.

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Geopolitics, Hybrid WW3

Victoria Nuland Quits as NATO Suffered Major Defeat in Ukraine

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The Managing Director of the US State Department’s regime change operation in Ukraine back in 2014 , Victoria Nuland resigns as NATO suffered heavy loses again in Ukraine.

US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland is poised to leave her post in the coming weeks, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has announced. The senior official, widely regarded as a foreign policy hawk, played a key role in the Western-backed coup in Ukraine in 2014.

In December 2013, she visited Kiev with the late Senator John McCain to hand out pastries to armed protesters in the city’s central square. Days before the February coup, as orchestrated mass murder gripped the city, she was recorded discussing how to “midwife this thing” with then-US ambassador to Kiev, Geoffrey Pyatt, reportedly exclaiming “F**k the EU” when it came to a choice of new leader in the war-torn country.

Nuland resigned from the State Department during the Trump administration, taking the helm of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) think-tank before joining the Albright Stonebridge Group and the board of the neo-liberal National Endowment for Democracy (NED). She rejoined the government after President Joe Biden’s inauguration in 2021.

She has worked on arming Ukraine and assembling a Western coalition that would supply Kiev with weapons and ammunition for the conflict with Russia. Last month, she pleaded to Congress to approve $61 billion in funding to Ukraine, arguing that most of it would be “going right back into the US economy,” to create jobs in the weapons industry.

Her most recent trip to Kiev involved intervening with President Vladimir Zelensky on behalf of General Valery Zaluzhny, though to no avail. Zaluzhny was subsequently fired.

In a CNN interview at the end of February, Nuland admitted the defeat of US efforts towards Moscow, acknowledging that the target of her policy is “not the Russia that, frankly, we wanted.”

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova attributed Nuland’s exit to “the failure of the anti-Russian course of the Biden administration.”

“Russophobia, proposed by Victoria Nuland as the main foreign policy concept of the United States, is dragging the Democrats to the bottom like a stone,” Zakharova said. Posting a photo of Nuland taken at an Orthodox church at some point, she said that if the US politician wanted to “go to a monastery to atone for your sins, we can put in a good word.”

Nuland is married to neoconservative stalwart Robert Kagan, a co-founder of the Project for the New American Century. Her sister-in-law Kimberley Kagan runs the Institute for the Study of War. Her temporary replacement at the State Department will be Under Secretary for Management John Bass, a former US Ambassador to Afghanistan (2017-2020), Turkey (2014-2017) and Georgia (2009-2012) .

In a statement on Tuesday, Blinken noted that his friend “Toria” has held most of the jobs at the State Department, from a consular officer to ambassador and deputy secretary, over her 35-year career. Her most recent posting was as undersecretary for political affairs. She was also Blinken’s acting deputy after the July 2023 retirement of Wendy Sherman, until Kurt Campbell was confirmed to the post last month.

“What makes Toria truly exceptional is the fierce passion she brings to fighting for what she believes in most: freedom, democracy, human rights, and America’s enduring capacity to inspire and promote those values around the world,” Blinken said.

He also noted that her “leadership on Ukraine” will be the subject of study “for years to come” by diplomats and students of foreign policy.

RT is an autonomous, non-profit organization that is publicly financed from the budget of the Russian Federation. For more information, contact: pr***@rt**.ru.

Geopolitics, Hybrid WW3, Multipolar World

The Axis of Asymmetry Takes On The ‘Rules-Based Order’

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World War III is here, playing out asymmetrically in military, financial, and institutional battlefields, and the fight is an existential one. The western Hegemon, in truth, is at war against international law, and only ‘kinetic military action’ can bring it to heel.

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Hybrid WW3, Ukrainian Crisis

Collapse of Collective West’s Hybrid Blitzkrieg Operation Citadel 2.0

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The goals of the Ukrainian army’s offensive in the summer of 2023 and the size of combat groups formed to carry it out are to a certain extent comparable with what the German military fielded for its Operation Citadel in 1943. This gives us the grounds for calling Kiev’s offensive in the summer of 2023 Operation Citadel 2.0.

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Hybrid WW3, Middle East, Nazism & Zionism

THE HIDDEN CONSEQUENCES OF US AND UK AIRSTRIKES

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When confronted with international appeals for humanitarian aid due to the ongoing crises in Gaza and Yemen, the United States and the United Kingdom have chosen instead to turn Yemen’s Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden into a combat zone, initiating an ariel bombing campaign against the war-torn country already suffering immensely from nine years of deadly conflict spearheaded by Saudi Arabia and backed by the U.S.

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Hybrid WW3, Military Industrial Complex

The United States Has Zero Deterrence vs Nuclear High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse

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In his newly published book, Nuclear High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse, Steven Starr shows that all it takes is one nuclear explosion to shut down  the United States and throw the population back into the Dark Ages. 

The electric power grid would be destroyed along with the communications system, the cooling systems at nuclear power plants and all electronic devices. The reason is that civilian infrastructure is not protected from Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP).

The military has taken steps to shield its weapon and communication systems, but nothing has been done to protect civilian infrastructure. Bills mandating EMP protection have been defeated in Congress.  

Starr reports that only 4% of the US military budget is required to shield the power grid and civilian infrastructure. Instead, the Washington idiots waste trillions of dollars in pointless wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Serbia, Syria, Yemen, Palestine, and Ukraine.  

American cities would suffer no effects from blast and fire, such as would be produced by ground level detonation, but the consequences would be just as dire. Starr describes them in a summary on his website.

Effects of a Single High-altitude Nuclear Detonation Over the Eastern U.S.

“105 miles above Ohio, a single nuclear warhead explodes. Because it is far above the atmosphere, there will be no blast or fire effects felt on Earth, however, this high-altitude nuclear detonation will create a gigantic electromagnetic pulse or EMP.

“In one billionth of a second, the initial EMP E1 wave will cause massive voltages and currents to form within power lines, telecommunication lines, cables, wires, antennas, and any other electrically conductive material found beneath the nuclear detonation in a circular area covering hundreds of thousands of square miles.

“Within this region, under ideal conditions, the E1 wave will produce 2 million volts and a current of 5,000 to 10,000 amps within medium distribution power lines. Any unshielded modern electronic devices that contain solid-state circuitry, which are plugged into the grid, will be disabled, damaged, or destroyed. This includes the electronic devices required to operate all critical national infrastructure.

“Unshielded electronic devices within ground, air, and sea transportation systems, water and sanitation systems, fuel and food distribution systems, water and sanitation systems, telecommunication systems, and banking systems would all be simultaneously knocked out of service – and all these systems would be disabled until the solid-state electronics required to operate them could be repaired or replaced.

“The E1 wave will also instantly destroy millions of glass insulators found on 15 kilovolt-class electric power distribution lines. 78% of all electricity in the US is delivered to end users (residential, agricultural, commercial) through these 15 kV power lines. The loss of a single insulator on a line can knock out power distribution on the entire line.

“At the same instant, the massive voltage and current induced by the E1 wave will damage and destroy the relays, sensors, and control panels at 1783 High Voltage Substations, knocking out the entire electric power grid in the eastern half of the United States.

“One to ten seconds after the nuclear detonation, the following EMP E3 wave would induce powerful current flows in power lines including lines that are both above and below ground. E3 would damage or destroy many – if not most – of the Large Power Transformers and Extra High Voltage Circuit Breakers required for the long-distance transmission of about 90% of electrical power in the United States.

“The loss of Large Power Transformers and Extra High Voltage Circuit Breakers would mean that entire regions within the United States would be left without electric power for up to a year or longer. This is because Large Power Transformers are not stockpiled and the current wait time for their manufacture is 18 to 24 months; they must be custom designed and manufactured and about 80% are made overseas. They each weigh between 200 and 400 tons and must be shipped by sea and moving them to their final destination is quite difficult even under normal circumstances.

“Because nuclear power plants are not designed to withstand the effects of EMP, the solid-state electronics within their backup electrical and cooling systems would also be damaged and disabled. The failure of their Emergency Power Systems and active Emergency Core Cooling Systems will make it impossible to cool their reactor cores after emergency shutdown; this will quickly lead to reactor core meltdowns at dozens of nuclear power plants.

“To summarize, a single nuclear high-altitude electromagnetic pulse can instantly take out most or all of the US power grid while simultaneously destroying the solid-state electronic devices required to operate US critical national infrastructure – including the safety systems at nuclear power plants. Following a nuclear EMP, the people of the US would suddenly find themselves living in the conditions of the Middle Ages for a period possibly as long as a year – most Americans would not be able to survive such circumstances.

“For less than 4% of the US national defense budget, the US power grid and critical infrastructure can be shielded from EMP. However, the political will to implement this protection has not yet been found, so Americans remain very much at risk.”

The book is available from Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and Kindle. If you read it, you will be amazed and disgusted at the negligence and stupidity of the US government.  Thanks to the fools who govern us, we have zero national security despite the massive expenditures year after year, decade after decade.

People do not realize that the convenience and entertainment provided by their cell phones comes at great cost when measured by risk.  Nothing is secure in the digital age, not your identity, your privacy, your bank account, or your independence. The expansion of the digital revolution into money will mean that you can be denied access to your money for any reason including the exercise of free speech.  

All accumulated knowledge in digital form can be erased by one EMP. Try to imagine the consequences of such a loss.  These are new risks never before experienced on Earth.

Paul Craig Roberts is a renowned author and academic, chairman of The Institute for Political Economy where this article was originally published. Dr. Roberts was previously associate editor and columnist for The Wall Street Journal. He was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy during the Reagan Administration.

Hybrid WW3, Terrorism

US Strikes vs Anti-ISIS Militias in Syria, Iraq Proves “War on Terror” A Sham

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Dozens of people in Syria and Iraq were killed Saturday morning after the United States fired ‘precision munitions’ into the two countries against 85 targets ranging from command and control and intelligence centers to logistics bases used by anti-ISIS* militias. Sputnik asked a trio of experts about the strikes’ implications for the region.

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Geopolitics, Hybrid WW3

How Yemen’s ‘Asabiyya’ is Reshaping Geopolitics

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The Arabic word Asabiyya, or ‘social solidarity,’ is a soundbite in the west, but taken very seriously by the globe’s new contenders China, Russia, and Iran. It is Yemen, however, that is mainstreaming the idea, by sacrificing everything for the world’s collective morality in a bid to end the genocide in Gaza.

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Hybrid WW3, Multipolar World

USA and Israel Should be Worried: The Muslim Middle East is Moving Its Own Way

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Less than a month before Russia takes over the chairmanship of BRICS-11 where both UAE and Saudi Arabia will be full members, Russia makes a big move to bring cooperation with UAE and Saudi Arabia to an unprecedented level.

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Hybrid WW3, Nazism & Zionism

This Country is Making Gaza Genocide More Costly for Apartheid Israel & US

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Yemen is undoubtedly still experiencing economic hardships following the war with Saudi Arabia, but it is still fulfilling its humanitarian obligations to support the Palestinian people during these trying times.

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BRICS / SCO / EAEU, Hybrid WW3, War Crimes

BRICS Condemns Israel War Crimes in Gaza

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Leaders of emerging economies demanded on Tuesday that Israel stop its war on Gaza and that hostilities cease on both sides in order to alleviate the rapidly worsening humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip.

The BRICS group condemned attacks on civilians in Israel and Palestine during a virtual summit that was presided over by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. Several of the leaders referred to the forcible relocation of Palestinians, either inside or outside of Gaza, as “war crimes.”

According to a summary delivered by the chair,

“We condemned any kind of individual or mass forcible transfer and deportation of Palestinians from their own land.

… the forced transfer and deportation of Palestinians, whether inside Gaza or to neighbouring countries, constitute grave breaches of the Geneva conventions and war crimes and violations under International Humanitarian Law.”

The big rising economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, collectively known as the BRICS, are striving for more influence in the international system that has long been dominated by the United States and its Western allies.

These nations are frequently seen as the leaders of the “Global South,” as it is known in the language of international diplomacy. However, more than just these five nations discussed the conflict on Tuesday.

The BRICS had decided earlier this year to grow and include Egypt, Ethiopia, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran as members starting in 2024.

The gathering that South Africa organized was attended by the leaders of these six nations as well. Antonio Guterres, the secretary-general of the UN, also attended the summit.

The chair’s report, which essentially captures the core of the atmosphere in the room, emphasizes the mounting calls for an end to the Gaza Strip war coming from the Global South.

The battle started on October 7, when the militant group Hamas attacked Israeli villages, killing 1,200 people and kidnapping 240 more. In retaliation, Israel has been shelling Gaza nonstop, hitting schools, hospitals, and refugee camps. This has killed over 13,000 people, many of them children, and violated international law.

Millions of people have since marched for a “Free Palestine” and demanded a ceasefire throughout Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Scholars from Africa and other regions have charged the US, UK, and EU with being hypocritical for purporting to

Some nations were more aggressive in their presentations, but the chair’s summary seemed “mild and somewhat balanced,” according to Steven Gruzd, an analyst at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA).

President Ramaphosa of South Africa, who is now leading the BRICS, said in his opening remarks that Israel’s actions “are in plain violation of international law” and that the “collective punishment of Palestinian people by Israel “is a war crime… akin to genocide.” In addition, Ramaphosa declared that Hamas “must be held accountable” for violating international law.

India took a somewhat more moderate stand, with Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar stating that “peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy” as well as “a need for restraint and immediate humanitarian support” were both necessary.

BRICS “Growing Assertiveness”

Some nations were more aggressive in their presentations, but the chair’s summary seemed “mild and somewhat balanced,” according to Steven Gruzd, an analyst at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA).

President Ramaphosa of South Africa, who is now leading the BRICS, said in his opening remarks that Israel’s actions “are in plain violation of international law” and that the “collective punishment of Palestinian people by Israel “is a war crime… akin to genocide.”

In addition, Ramaphosa declared that Hamas “must be held accountable” for violating international law.

India took a somewhat more moderate stand, with Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar stating that “peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy” as well as “a need for restraint and immediate humanitarian support” were both necessary.

“I am not sure I recall a similar extraordinary summit being called. It does reflect on the growing assertiveness and confidence of the BRICS grouping, not waiting for the West. BRICS has generally shied away from political and security issues; this meeting goes against that trend.”

Steven Gruzd, analyst at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA).

The BRICS nations collectively account for 25% of the world’s economy and 40% of the world’s population.

Israel’s fiercest adversary, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, suggested that the Palestinians should hold a referendum to decide their future.
However, not just India but a number of the BRICS countries have developed relationships with Israel that they will be hesitant to break.

Gruzd points out that although China has significant investments in Israel, India has even closer historical ties to the nation and benefits from joint military and technological ventures.

However, India might not be able to control how a new BRICS+ will respond to Israel given that a ferocious Iran is expected to join the group, according to Gruzd.

According to analysts, South Africa, the smallest of the BRICS nations and a nation that endured harsh apartheid for over 40 years, sees parallels in the Palestinian struggle and has continuously been among the most vocal proponents of a ceasefire.

It has also long been Israel’s main trading partner in Africa. That relationship seemed to have reached a turning point on Tuesday.

Voters in parliament decided to close the Israeli embassy in Pretoria, which marked a sea change in the situation.

On November 6, the nation’s diplomats were already brought back from Israel. In response to Pretoria’s growing hostility, Israel called Eliav Belotserkovsky, its ambassador to South Africa, back for “consultations” on Monday.

Last week, South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Comoros, and Djibouti sent a referral to the International Criminal Court (ICC) asking them to look into possible war crimes in Gaza.

Bibi Netanyahu Should Be Sent to The Hague for War Crimes

Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, the Minister in the Presidency of South Africa, increased the pressure on Monday by requesting an International Criminal Court warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

He further stated that it would be a “total failure” if the court chose not to look into the leader.

Because President Vladimir Putin has an ICC arrest warrant out for war crimes committed in Ukraine, South Africa was able to persuade Russia earlier this year not to send him to the BRICS Summit in August.

South Africa, a signatory to the ICC, would have been required to arrest Putin had he attended the summit there.

According to activist Muhammed Desai of Africa4Palestine, the BRICS position announced on Tuesday—which was spearheaded by South Africa—may encourage other nations to vocally oppose the war.

“South Africa is a significant economic and political powerhouse on the African continent as well as a country with one of the most embassies and high commissions in the world. Thus, its stance and position does have clout within the diplomatic arena.”

Muhammed Desai of Africa4Palestine

Others, however, contend that the coalition’s political clout is insufficient to truly influence Israel’s war strategy. Gruzd of SAIIA stated, “To be honest, I don’t think they have much leverage on Israel directly.” “It won’t have much of an impact on the West, other than amplifying the calls for a ceasefire,” I add.

Still, their power is increasing. Many countries want to lessen their reliance on the US-led Western financial system, which is one of the main reasons for the expansion of BRICS earlier this year. Dozens of countries have applied or expressed interest in joining.

As the group’s 2024 president, Russia is anticipated to advocate for the use of local currencies rather than the US dollar, which is currently the currency of choice, for international trade payments.

Some claim that in order for the voice of the Global South to be heard, that platform is essential. Africa4Palestine’s Desai stated, “BRICS offers another voice within the global world order, and that is necessary to counter the current Western hegemonic view.”

Russia’s Sacred Duty to Gaza

Russian President Vladimir Putin made this argument on Wednesday, saying that Moscow has a moral duty to provide humanitarian aid to the civilian population in Gaza.

He had expressed to other BRICS leaders the previous day how videos showing Palestinian children undergoing surgery without anesthesia had affected him.

“When you watch how children are being operated on with no anesthesia – this of course arouses very special feelings. This is a very important, humanitarian, noble mission. We need to help people suffering as a result of the ongoing events.”

President Putin, addressing the Russian cabinet

The head of Russia continued by saying that helping Palestinian civilians in Gaza “our sacred duty.”

Hybrid WW3, Nazism & Zionism

Iranian Offensives Forced Israel to Agree on A Temporary Ceasefire

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Iran’s President, Ebrahim Raisi, urged BRICS leaders to consider labeling the Israeli government as a terrorist entity due to its actions in Gaza. He proposed seven measures during a virtual BRICS summit, suggesting that the organization recognize Israel as a terrorist regime and its military as a terrorist group.

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