In the Great Power competition, everything is connected: Uncertain negotiations between Russia and NATO over Ukraine may be impacted by Turkiye’s post-election pivot and Syria’s return to the Arab League.Continue reading Bold Gambits on the West Asian Chessboard
Category Archives: Multipolar World
Multipolarity is About a Fair Redistribution of Power, Which the West Refuses to Accept
An equitable world order is gaining momentum as tensions flare between the dominant and emerging world powersContinue reading Multipolarity is About a Fair Redistribution of Power, Which the West Refuses to Accept
Bridge of Peace and Prosperity Proposed From the Arab World to Syria
Syria is on the brink of recovery as Saudi Arabia plans to invite Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to the Arab League summit in Riyadh on May 19.Continue reading Bridge of Peace and Prosperity Proposed From the Arab World to Syria
Saudi Arabia Makes its Eurasian Shift
Saudi Arabia’s recent reconciliations with Iran and Syria under Chinese-Russian guidance is perceived as a step toward reducing Riyadh’s dependence on the US, while also advancing Beijing and Moscow’s political and economic influence in West Asia.Continue reading Saudi Arabia Makes its Eurasian Shift
The Capital of the Multipolar World: A Moscow Diary
In Moscow you feel no crisis. No effects of sanctions. No unemployment. No homeless people in the streets. Minimal inflation.Continue reading The Capital of the Multipolar World: A Moscow Diary
Moscow Calls for Strengthened Cooperation Between All Nations Facing Foreign Pressure
Moscow aims to defend the emerging multipolar world order against the vestiges of Western domination.Continue reading Moscow Calls for Strengthened Cooperation Between All Nations Facing Foreign Pressure
What You Need to Know About Russia-China Relations, But Were Afraid to Ask
So much has been said about Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia last week, that the descriptive genre has been exhausted. What is needed instead is either details on specific aspects or some sort of in-depth socio-cultural analysis.Continue reading What You Need to Know About Russia-China Relations, But Were Afraid to Ask
Brazil and China Sign Pact to Abandon Dollar
The two BRICS nations will now reportedly trade in their own currencies.Continue reading Brazil and China Sign Pact to Abandon Dollar
Global South Solidarity is the Key to Lifting Up Central America – Not Washington’s Monroe Doctrine
The US is angry at Latin American nations getting close to China, but the only alternative on offer is imperialist exploitation.Continue reading Global South Solidarity is the Key to Lifting Up Central America – Not Washington’s Monroe Doctrine
The Middle East frees itself from the West
The reconciliation between Saudi Arabia, leader of the Sunni Muslim world, and Iran, leader of the Shiite Muslim world, finally makes possible an era of peace in the Middle East. It was made possible by Russia, ally of the two enemy brothers, and negotiated first in Iraq and Oman before being concluded by China, Iran’s millennial ally, acting impartially. This agreement closes eleven years of wars and Western influence.Continue reading The Middle East frees itself from the West
How the China-brokered Saudi-Iran Deal will Change the Middle East
Last week, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced a landmark deal, brokered by China in Beijing, to formally restore diplomatic relations. The agreement saw the two sectarian arch rivals in the Middle East agree to put aside their differences and to normalize ties.
It was the first ever deal of its kind overseen by China, framing itself as a peacemaker, and showing that its commitment to have good relations with every country in the region is not just based on rhetoric but actual substance. Some have described it as a sign of a “changing global order.”
To put it mildly, it is bad news for the United States and deals a massive blow to the near-unlimited geopolitical sway Washington has long held over the region via its strategic relationships with countries such as Saudi Arabia.
Additionally, it effectively ruins a US led campaign to pressurize and isolate Iran and hinders American efforts to shape regional politics in Israel’s favor via the Abraham Accords. It is no surprise that the Western media is calling the Chinese-brokered deal a “challenge” to the international order, but what order is that? The ability of the US to dominate the Middle East? Perhaps brokering peace is a good thing.
US foreign policy in the Middle East
Since the decline of European colonial empires, the United States has been the sole military hegemon in the Middle East, using a network of partnerships from Israel to the Gulf States to sustain domination over the region and allowing the US to exploit its energy resources. In order to maintain this position, the US has long needed adversaries in order to perpetuate an ongoing security dilemma and force reliance on it as a security guarantor, which is also beneficial to the US military industrial complex. These policies have accumulated decades worth of wars, insurgencies and attempts at regime change.
Detractors to the US agenda have included revolutionary Arabist regimes, such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Bashar Assad’s Syria, terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS, and of course the post-1979 Islamic Republic of Iran. It was after the US gave up on its botched attempt to topple Assad that policymakers in the Trump administration decided to focus on Tehran, tearing up US participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and imposing a crippling sanctions regime. In retaliation, Iran has waged a series of proxy conflicts against US partners in the region, most notably assisting the Houthis in Yemen against the Saudi-backed government, which has overseen the carpet-bombing of occupied regions.
China’s policy in the Middle East
Unlike the United States, China’s policy in the Middle East is non-interventionist, and assumes a neutral posture in regional conflicts, taking a position of respect for national sovereignty. However, this does not mean Beijing has no interests in the region. As it grows and develops domestically, its need for secure access to energy resources has increased, leading it on a diplomatic push to build good relations with every country in the region, and this has only accelerated as the US has pushed to isolate China from the West. Despite the intra-regional power struggle, in the past two years, Beijing announced strategic partnerships with both Iran and the Gulf States.
Because China did not have the same military footprint or stakes in the Middle East as the US, many analysts were dismissive of Beijing’s ability to seriously act as a diplomatic mediator in the region. They believed that its attempts to build good ties with everyone were spread too thin. However, the Saudi-Iran deal shows this assumption was wrong. But how did it happen?
First, it should be noted that the Gulf States are not “value” allies to the US in the way European countries are, and not “morally obligated” to follow the American cause. Rather, they are self-interested monarchies with very different ideological and value systems (strict Wahhabi Islam) and have seen the US as a “patron” in guaranteeing their economic and security interests (oil for weapons). This is not a “marriage”, just business.
It should be understood that the world has changed in ways which now lead these states to perceive that unparalleled US dominance, which is its unequivocal foreign policy goal, is no longer in their best interests. They have found a new, bigger partner in Beijing who not only can buy more of their oil, but also doesn’t have a foreign policy doctrine premised on evangelizing its ideology or creating war throughout the region. As such, when the US delivered an ultimatum to the United Arab Emirates that they will block the export of F-35s if they don’t drop Huawei from their 5G networks, Abu Dhabi told Washington where to go.
While this shift was already underway by 2022, events last year exacerbated it further as the Gulf States suddenly found the US demanding that they take sides in a war – in Ukraine – which did not concern them, and worse still, demanding that they compromise their own economic interests to suit its sanctions agenda.
The US fell out with OPEC, and Saudi Arabia publicly rebuffed its demands to increase oil production. Meanwhile, the events of that year also emboldened Iran, who was not being swayed by US pressure, while the return of Benjamin Netanyahu to power in Israel exacerbated Arab-Israeli tensions, damaging the US backed Abraham Accords, and hindering Saudi Arabia’s willingness to normalize with Israel.
These events have ultimately created the political space for a diplomatic reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, backed by China. It’s a massive blow to American interests as it is the first major Middle East deal brokered without Washington’s influence, and subsequently dilutes its policy of creating a perpetual war machine in order to legitimize its footprint in the region and its clout over Arab States.
It also shows that the US campaign to try and isolate and crush Iran has failed, and that the United States no longer holds the power it once did to isolate countries. If the US is wise, it should use this development to rethink its approach to the Middle East, but if other policies are anything to go by, the Washington circle is likely to continue to think every problem is a nail, and more hammers are needed.
In a Multipolar World, the Idea of a New World Order Dies
When former US President George W. Bush and his neocon regime launched their anti-terrorism campaign after the September 11th attacks, he declared that “Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.”Continue reading In a Multipolar World, the Idea of a New World Order Dies
Who is India’s National Security Advisor and Why did Putin Decide to Meet Him One on One?
The Russian president has held a surprise meeting with AK Doval, PM Modi’s most trusted foreign and domestic aide.Continue reading Who is India’s National Security Advisor and Why did Putin Decide to Meet Him One on One?
The Stage is Set for A Full Blown Hybrid World War III
The strategists of Russia and China are now working full time on how to return all strands of Hybrid War against the Hegemon.Continue reading The Stage is Set for A Full Blown Hybrid World War III
Russia’s Sergey Glazyev Introduces the New Global Financial System
The world’s new monetary system, underpinned by a digital currency, will be backed by a basket of new foreign currencies and natural resources. And it will liberate the Global South from both western debt and IMF-induced austerity.Continue reading Russia’s Sergey Glazyev Introduces the New Global Financial System
The World Teetering on the New Polycentric Geopolitics
The world is yet to see how dangerous the decade before us will be, what the new global geopolitical architecture will look like and who is to build it.Continue reading The World Teetering on the New Polycentric Geopolitics
Can You Smell What the Year of the Rabbit is Cooking?
The New Silk Roads, or BRI, as well as the integration efforts of BRICS+, the SCO and the EAEU will be on the forefront of Chinese policy.Continue reading Can You Smell What the Year of the Rabbit is Cooking?
Why BRI is Back With A Bang in 2023
As Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative enters its 10th year, a strong Sino-Russian geostrategic partnership has revitalized the BRI across the Global South.Continue reading Why BRI is Back With A Bang in 2023
Xi of Arabia and the Petroyuan Drive
Xi Jinping has made an offer difficult for the Arabian Peninsula to ignore: China will be guaranteed buyers of your oil and gas, but we will pay in yuan.Continue reading Xi of Arabia and the Petroyuan Drive
China’s Win-Win Arrangement with Saudi Arabia
Beijing manages to maintain strategic partnerships with other countries despite their ongoing sectarian disputes.Continue reading China’s Win-Win Arrangement with Saudi Arabia
What the Historic China-Arab Summits Mean for the Middle East
Xi Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia signals a desire by Arab nations to hedge their bets with stronger partnerships beyond the US.Continue reading What the Historic China-Arab Summits Mean for the Middle East
Mali Kicks Out France in Favor of Russia
The global geopolitical shift continues with the Republic of Mali kicking out blackmailer France and its NGOs, in favor of Russian economic and security cooperation.Continue reading Mali Kicks Out France in Favor of Russia
Russia, India, China, Iran: the Quad that really matters
Southeast Asia is right at the center of international relations for a whole week viz a viz three consecutive summits: Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Phnom Penh, the Group of Twenty (G20) summit in Bali, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Bangkok.Continue reading Russia, India, China, Iran: the Quad that really matters
The meeting this week between two Eurasian security bosses is a further step toward dusting away the west’s oversized Asian footprint.Continue reading Rewiring Eurasia
Does the West Think We’re Fools?
President of the Socialist Party of Zambia, Fred M’membe, and the convener of the Socialist Movement of Ghana, Kyeretwie Opoku, slammed the West’s arrogant attitude towards African countries.Continue reading Does the West Think We’re Fools?
Birth of NWO Where West Will Have to Live Within Its Means
It’s time for the Global Majority to take their rightful place at the top table.Continue reading Birth of NWO Where West Will Have to Live Within Its Means
‘Peaceful modernization’: China’s offering to the Global South
Xi Jinping just offered the Global South a stark alternative to decades of western diktats, war, and economic duress. ‘Peaceful modernization’ will establish sovereignty, economy, and independence for the world’s struggling states.Continue reading ‘Peaceful modernization’: China’s offering to the Global South
Saudi Arabia Looks To Join BRICS Next Year
Saudi Arabia expressed interest in being part of the BRICS economic bloc as it pivots away from Washington. Conversations with the alternative counter-western alliance representative, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, started the ball rolling.Continue reading Saudi Arabia Looks To Join BRICS Next Year
Saudi Arabia Joining the BRICS Shows the World is Moving On from Western Dominance
Two decades on from its emergence as a marketing ploy, the concept has enjoyed an unlikely upturn.Continue reading Saudi Arabia Joining the BRICS Shows the World is Moving On from Western Dominance
OPEC’s Body Blow to Biden
The OPEC+ decision could change the security picture in West Asia more than anything since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.Continue reading OPEC’s Body Blow to Biden