Southeast Asia in a Multipolar World

The 15th Asian Conference, held in Kuala Lumpur on December 9-10, 2024, brought together over 100 experts and high-ranking diplomats from Malaysia and Russia. The event, organized by multiple foundations, took place against the backdrop of Malaysia’s upcoming ASEAN chairmanship and recent BRICS partnership.

Key discussions centered on BRICS, multilateralism, and regional cooperation. Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Bin Haji Hasan and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko emphasized ASEAN’s importance in ensuring regional security and international collaboration. Participants explored topics including BRICS’ growing global influence, de-dollarization, financial diversification, and strategic partnerships between ASEAN and Russia.

The conference highlighted several critical insights: BRICS represents 25% of world trade and 45% of global population, offering a platform for developing countries’ economic sovereignty. Experts discussed the shift away from a unipolar world order, the need for balanced international relations, and the potential for alternative financial infrastructures.

Discussions also addressed challenges such as economic asymmetry, the impact of sanctions, and the potential for expanded cultural and educational exchanges. Russia’s pivot to Asia was noted as significant, with approximately 70% of its trade now occurring with Asian countries.

All three sessions of the first day of the conference were open to the media. The first was devoted to Southeast Asia’s pivot to BRICS. Participants pointed out the reasons for the growing interest in BRICS in the region. According to Pham Lan Dung, Acting President of the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, the BRICS countries, which account for 25% of world trade and 45% of the world’s population, have a real political weight. This association participates in the reform of global governance, promoting the democratisation of international financial institutions. According to Pham Lan Dung, it is important that BRICS does not replace other institutions, but complements them, providing potential for the development of the countries of the Global South.

Shakila Yacob, Professor at the Jeffrey Cheah Institute on Southeast Asia at Sunway University, spoke about the role of BRICS in strengthening the independence of developing countries. According to her, the concept of BRICS resonates with the postulates of the Bandung Conference, such as liberation from the colonial past, the spirit of solidarity and non-alignment.

According to Fui K. Soong, a member of the Board of Trustees of the Institute of Strategic Analysis and Policy Research, the situation in the Middle East today highlights the need to protect sovereignty and rely on multilateral institutions.

Bunn Nagara, Director and Senior Fellow of the Belt and Road Initiative Caucus for Asia Pacific and Distinguished Fellow of the Perak Academy, stressed that BRICS is a universal international platform for strengthening security and economic cooperation. It is not an alternative to bipolarity, but a multilateral movement to strengthen ties between the North and the South.

In turn, Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Club, noted that the emergence of BRICS reflects the natural movement of the world system towards balance, when there will be no single centre of power with complete power and complete irresponsibility. The unipolar moment that arose after the end of the Cold War was unnatural, and today the world is returning to normal. The rise of Asia played a key role here. Economic growth, increased consumption, and rising living standards in Asian countries made the preservation of the previous world order impossible.

The second session was devoted to the role of de-dollarisation and financial diversification in strengthening economic sovereignty. Igor Makarov, Head of the Department of World Economy, Head of the Laboratory of Climate Change Economics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, and Shamil Yenikeeff, Professor of the Department of International Relations at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, pointed to the dangers for the world economy associated with the weaponization of the monopoly position of the dollar. The injustice of this state of affairs is obvious to most countries in the world, but attempts to undermine the role of the dollar are currently futile. It is necessary to replace and supplement the infrastructure of the global financial system so that the dollar should be not needed, Makarov emphasized.

In the context of the destabilisation of the international financial system, BRICS seeks to become a stabilizing force, Yenikeeff noted. This is happening by building not a replacement, but additional financial architecture.

According to Rajah Rasiah, Executive Director of the Asia-Europe Institute, sanctions have further unbalanced the global financial system, which has not recovered from the pandemic.

In turn, Maslinnawati Ahmad, Head of Economics and Research, Bank Pembangunan Malaysia Berhad, expressed hope that ASEAN countries can receive investments from BRICS, access to the domestic market and raw materials in the context of expanding settlements in national currencies.

Participants in the third session discussed the future of the strategic partnership between ASEAN and Russia. Ekaterina Koldunova, Director of the ASEAN Centre, Associate Professor of the Oriental Studies Department at MGIMO University of the Russian Foreign Ministry, noted that Russia would like to see ASEAN become a centre of not only regional but also global significance, which can play a constructive role in international relations. Russia and ASEAN should strive not to create any alternatives, but to form their own infrastructure for interaction in all areas, she emphasized. In addition, Koldunova noted that an important asset in relations between Russia and ASEAN is the absence of problems in the area of ​​historical memory.

In turn, former ambassador Ilango Karuppannan pointed out problems in relations between the two sides: according to him, these include economic asymmetry and the distance factor.

Kin Phea, Director General of the Cambodian Institute of International Relations, also pointed to the modest volumes of mutual trade, noting, however, that there is a growth dynamic. Both speakers emphasized the important role of cultural exchanges.

Vladimir Kolotov, Head of the Department of Far Eastern History at the Faculty of Oriental Studies at St Petersburg University and Director of the Ho Chi Minh Institute, noted that the common goal of Russia and ASEAN is to transform Eurasia into a peaceful space. This requires a common strategy, but also strengthening ties at the practical level in terms of creating a new digital and logistics infrastructure.

Kuik Cheng-Chwee, Professor of the Department of International Relations at the Institute of Malaysian and International Studies at the National University of Malaysia, emphasized ASEAN’s desire to cooperate with all forces without taking sides. But neutrality does not necessarily have to be passive and merely reactive to challenges, he stressed: the countries of Southeast Asia understand that they need to be active and inclusive.

Two sessions on the second day of the conference were held behind closed doors. The fourth session was devoted to the central role of ASEAN and the strengthening of minilateral formats in ensuring regional security. As the rivalry between the US and China escalates, which is already having an impact on Southeast Asia, ASEAN is increasingly criticized by Washington for its perceived dysfunctionality and unwillingness to take sides. The US is trying to push countries in the region towards its own formats of interaction bypassing the central role of ASEAN, which is causing some resistance.

Researchers from the countries of the region recognize the advantages of such minilateral formats: their flexibility, adaptability, and speed of decision-making. Nevertheless, it was emphasized that there are no alternatives to ASEAN as a platform for regional security issues. During the discussion, a number of solutions were proposed to improve the effectiveness of ASEAN processes, in particular, moving away from the consensus rule in favour of decision-making by a two-thirds vote. In addition, the need to build up ASEAN’s own security capabilities was emphasized.

The theme of the last session of the conference was Russia’s pivot to Asia. Participants discussed the emerging opportunities and challenges that Russia and Southeast Asian countries face in expanding cooperation. Attention was again drawn to the modest level of trade and the region’s fears of secondary sanctions. One of the participants pointed to the need to expand cultural and educational exchange, as well as to create opportunities for studying the Russian language in Malaysia. Traditionally, the topic of the insufficient presence of Russian soft power in the region was raised.

Meanwhile, Russia’s pivot to Asia, which began more than ten years ago, has become a fait accompli. Today, according to one of the participants, Russia is more of an Asian economy than many Asian countries: about 70% of its trade turnover is with Asian countries. At the same time, Russia’s trade with Southeast Asia has great potential, which is not limited to purely increasing volumes, especially since Russia and ASEAN countries are direct competitors in many areas.

Cooperation between Russia and ASEAN is not and cannot be an aim in itself: it is a booster for their relations with other partners. Russia needs an alternative to India and China, and ASEAN needs an alternative to China and the United States, the participant emphasized.

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