An escalation in Israel could trigger a chain reaction. The Palestinians have no chance in such a war, because they cannot destroy Israel or inflict a significant military defeat on it, but Israel also has nothing to fight for.
Palestine is technically Israeli territory, which it does not and cannot control under any circumstances. It is equally impossible to physically destroy all Palestinians.
If we were in a different international situation, the Palestinians could count on the compassion of the international left, but the US is led by neocons and globalists. They certainly do not care about the Palestinians, although they are not too close to Israel’s nationalist policies either.
But it is the chain reaction – and especially the behavior of the Islamic states (primarily Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, other Gulf states and Egypt) – that could be the logical continuation. Or at least, this is what Hamas strategists may have had in mind when they decided to start the conflict.
Multipolarism is strengthening, the intensity of Western hegemony in the collective non-West is weakening. The West’s allies in the Islamic world – especially Turkey and the Saudis – do not automatically follow every order from Washington. This is the situation in which the Islamic pole, which recently provocatively joined the BRICS, will be put to the test.
Of course, the conflict could spread to other territories. The involvement of Iran and Hezbollah cannot be excluded, which means the potential transfer of hostilities to the territories of Lebanon and Syria. In Israel itself, there are enough Palestinians who fiercely hate Jews. All this could have unpredictable consequences.
In my opinion, the US and the globalists will try to shut everything down now, as they can achieve nothing good from further escalation.
One more thing: the analogies between separatism, irredentism, etc. in different regions of the world are no longer valid. The West recognizes both territorial unity and the right of peoples to secede when it benefits them and does not recognize them when they are not beneficial. There are no rules. In fact, we should treat the matter the same way (and indeed we do). What is favorable to us is right.
In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it is difficult – at least for now – for Russia to choose one side. There are pros and cons in every configuration. Ties with the Palestinians are ancient and, of course, victims, but Israel’s right flank also tries to pursue a neutrally friendly policy towards Russia and, in doing so, deviates from the wild and unequivocal Russo-phobia of the collective West.
Much will now depend on how events unfold in the future.
Yes, and of course we must not lose sight of the eschatological dimension of events. The Palestinians have called their operation the ‘Al-Aqsa Storm’, i.e. the tension around Jerusalem and the messianic (for Israel) horizon of building the Third Temple on the Temple Mount (impossible without demolishing the Al-Aqsa Mosque, an important Muslim shrine) is growing again.
The Palestinians are trying to ignite the eschatological sensibilities of Muslims – both Shiites, who are increasingly sensitive to this issue, and Sunnis (after all, they are no strangers to the reasons for the end of the world and the final battle). Israel and Zionism are the Dajjal for Muslims.
To what extent this is serious, we shall soon see, but in any case it is clear that those who ignore eschatology will not understand anything about great modern politics. And not only in the Middle East, although it is more evident there.